Hey! One for the good guys! Probably slashed the heck out of that, huh? :clap:

 

Well, we are talking about guys losing their livelihood. Seen any stats? We need to track some down. Sounds like Mexican trucking refuses to die. If I got a 'B' in econ 101, increasing the supply of drivers ultimately means depressing the wages. I got that B!

 

I've seen stats. They vary depending on the source. I don't have them in front of me so this is all just ballpark. Q3 last year was the worst for trucking failures. Depending on the source, I've seen everything from a .4% decline in that quarter to 10%. The last two quarters haven't been near as bad but again, the data varies. Some sources cite small drops in the fleet while some say the number of trucks increased slightly. Much of this discrepancy comes from data sources used. Some are simply class 8 registrations, others are an estimate of sales, and some try to accumulate fleet numbers.

My impression. We saw a decent drop in Q3 of actual OTR trucks working, probably in the 5-7% range. There were a few high profile failures that figured in that quarter (Jevic, autos) and a ton of O/O's went down due to fuel. I think we shrunk a little more in Q4 and Q1 as the large fleets idled trucks. Most of the SEC reports have cited this downsizing activity. I think the idling has mostly stopped and we're starting to see hiring activity increase again as the seasonal pickup occurs.

I would guess that we're probably down somewhere around 10% from peak capacity which occurred in 2007. Unfortunately, at the time that peak occurred, analysts said we were at approximately 16% excess capacity. We still haven't pulled back to anywhere near that equilibrium and current freight volumes are significantly lower. All that translates to far worse relative overcapacity today.

The Mexican trucks are a non-issue. Our problem is wholly domestic. Since the freight recession began over two years ago, we've experience high fuel prices and low rates, but not concurrently. High fuel took out far more trucks than low rates have. Low rates will eventually have the same effect, but it takes much longer. That's what we're seeing now. Guys are out running for cash flow, which they can keep up for a given period of time. However, it eventually catches up to them.

What I'm seeing (and what the ATA numbers reflect), is that we're getting a seasonal bump. There's more freight now than there was last month, but the size of the increase is well below normal. Lots of trucks have been trying to hold on until the "Spring rush" and now that it's here, they're moving, but rate cutting is rampant. We'll lose a lot of trucks over the next few quarters simply due to slow freight, and if we get a bump in fuel prices at the same time, we'll lose a lot more.

 

Remind me never to research all this. I can just ask you and learn much more than I'd ever find on my own.

Ok, so we started out with excess capacity and there has been a surprising amount of staying power. That said, if guys really have been struggling, maybe all of a sudden they'll start falling away in droves. I don't want to celebrate too much, we're talking about peoples' livelihoods. Not only that, many of us got into trucking in the first place because something else dried up. When the auto plant or the steel plant closes what do you do? You get a CDL, of course? Now, what happens when there isn't the work in trucking? I guess we work for President Obama. And, what happens after the economy collapses? Better dig out that Boy Scout survival guide. :smokin:

I'm not trying to get too morbid, just paying attention. I have to say, I'm blessed. I had no idea if there would be any work after the New Year. Thanks largely to Mike3fan, I got into this tanker gig and the rates are holding up, though I hope Panera never finds out how much of their bandwidth I'm using.

 

I am glad you are getting good rates, lowrange. Are those gross or truck money? Flatbed rates have been pretty flat (no pun intended). Most flat bed rates that I am seeing range from around $1.40-1.80. $2.00 rates are still around but not as common. We do some seasonal freight that paid a little over $2.00, but the heavy rains pretty much killed our season this spring. There were some who came in and undercut prices which also hurt the season. I did pull a load the other day that paid $2.10. That is one of the highest rate that I have seen lately. There are many more close to $1/mile than $2/mile. I do see some upward movement, but not nearly enough. There are still too many fingers in the pie and too many who are willing to haul those cheaper loads. It makes it much more difficult to get a better rate. We are still basically in a survival mode. At least our volume is coming up somewhat. Fuel is on it's way up so that should help push rates up. Higher fuel should also force more carriers and owner operators out of business. We still need to reduce capacity about 20% to have a major impact.

 

The 3rd quarter was pretty good for us but the 4th quarter was the pitts. The 1st quarter of this year wasn't very good either. So far the second quarter of this year has been a little better. The 1st quarter didn't have much freight. The second has had freight but cheap rates. We shall see how it ends. I think smaller carriers are in a different position than the large carriers. It is much easier for a smaller carrier to find a niche' and do better during lean times. (I am still looking for my niche')

 

This thread is pretty enlightening for me. It's information coming right from the horse's mouth, not the other end.:lol:

I'm a 30 year-in-the-business driver/former owner op., who has seen a lot of changes over the years. I got out in 2006 due to the rising costs, and a million-mile truck that was paid for but nickel & diming me to the point I couldn't hang on any more.

For instance, my last truck was a '97 379 with an N-14. If it weren't for that bullet-proof motor and my ability to fix a lot of things myself, it would have been a lot harder.

When I blew a rear in the spring of '06, I made the decision to buy a used cut-off with freshened up suspension and differentials out of a wreck. I unbolted my old worn out stuff and rolled the "new" back underneath and rebolted. For $3K, I was in better shape than most would have been. Trouble was, I was out of money and needed to get going and build myself back up. Unfortunately, I let the well get a little too dry, and ended up selling the truck and try the job market, with the intentions of working for a while until I get another deal in a niche and another truck.

Now I've found myself scratching around since then, having had about 10 different jobs since. Something always seems to change for one reason or another. The biggest complaint I have is, wages...I try to stay in a specialized niche such as heavy haul or oversized, but that freight is down dramatically along with all the rest. Tanker work has always been a good fallback as well, but in my region around Albany, NY and the surrounding areas, there a lot of competition, keeping rates at bay all the time. Wages remain the same way.

I now am currently hauling propane in the Northeast, a lucrative job in the winter, but on the verge of literally stopping right now due to season being done. I'm out pounding the pavement daily, and obviously going to the extremes of joining trucking forums now I'm so desperate... Now my thinking has switched to looking for work outside the northeast, hoping the midwest or thereabouts would be a bit more productive.

My point is, you'd think a guy like me and many of us with a little background in just about all phases of the business could get a job anywhere...so I used to think. Not so much right now. I was really seriously hallucinating lately about getting into a used truck again and bustin' my arse to create another specialized deal to create a job for myself again, but after eavesdropping in on you guys' experiences in the field right now, I'm a little bit leary.

So now what do I do...remain in a survival mode like the rest, keep pounding the pavement to no avail, or what?

Tough decision. Anyways, didn't mean to get so long-winded guys. I enjoyed your honest opinions. Keep on truckin', hang in there, and eventually it'll turn around. I truly believe EVERYTHING is cyclictic.

:thumbsup:

 

If you have having a problem finding another job I would guess the number of jobs you have had the last couple of years is the main reason. 10 jobs in 2 years or so is very high. Most carriers want to see no more than 3 jobs in 2 years.

Most people are making changes in order to survive. For some it may mean running to other areas of the country to find loads. For others, it may mean relocating to another region.

You are right about everything running in cycles.

 

By 'linehaul', I mean gross, of course. I get 62%. On top of that, I get about 17 cpm fuel loaded and empty. So, I guess I went to California for about $1.90/mile all in. The one to Baltimore today, about $1.65 all in. And, for anyone reading this, remembering I am not under my own authority and I pull a company trailer. Come to think of it, I wasn't doing nearly so well with a van.

 

Is a downward spiral considered cyclic? Seriously, all this we are talking about and I don't think we've yet to feel what it means for the government to just blow up in debt. We were slowly killing ourselves before TARP last fall, now we've taken the whole bottle. Again, I don't think we've yet to see the impact, but that could still take 10 years playing out, as far as I know.

In trucking, there could definitely be a short term bounce for a few years, particularly if a bunch of guys go out of business first.

Have you jacked up your record with all those job changes? Yours is a situation I've wondered about, the ability to simply fall back on a company job.

I don't know, I'd go to Alaska if it meant steady work. I hope I don't have to, but like Sam Kinison used to teach us, go where the food is.