Truck tonnage still not out of whack
#1
05-25-2008, 12:04 AM
Truck tonnage still not out of whack
I may have found an easy way for all of us to keep up on an actual measurement of trucking volume. Word of mouth is fine, but it's also nice to know the statistics. I just googled 'truck tonnage' for 'news' and came up with this:
News > Headline News > 05/23/2008
ATA reports y2y truck tonnage increase 05/23/2008 ARLINGTON, Va. -- The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index declined 1.1 percent in April 2008, but March’s tonnage reading was adjusted to read a slip of only 1.7 percent instead of the previously reported 3.2 percent drop. The seasonally adjusted index, therefore, was 2 percent higher compared with April 2007, marking the sixth consecutive year-over-year increase. The year-over-year reading in March was revised from a 0.1 percent contraction to a 1.5 percent gain. ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said the upward revision to March’s tonnage was very positive, but warned that freight remains mixed. "Truck tonnage hasn't grown since January of this year on a month-to-month basis, suggesting the overall economy remains very soft," he said. “With that said, the fact that tonnage is showing sustained year-over-year growth is positive for the industry, although part of the strength is due to easy comparisons from 2007.” Costello added that rapidly rising fuel prices are by far a bigger problem for the motor carrier industry than freight volumes. "Surging fuel prices are weighing heavily on consumers," he said. Since trucks haul virtually all consumer goods at some point in the supply chain, the industry is going to be significantly impacted both directly through higher diesel prices and indirectly as consumers pay more for gasoline and have less money to spend on truck-transported goods. Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy because it represents nearly 70 percent of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. ATA calculates the tonnage index based on surveys from its membership and has been doing so since the 1970s. http://www.todaystrucking.com/news.cfm?intDocID=19675 
#2
05-25-2008, 02:53 PM
Go to ttnews.com, sign up for their email subscription and you'll get the daily headlines which include that report every time it's released.
#3
05-25-2008, 04:37 PM
Originally Posted by no_worries
Go to ttnews.com, sign up for their email subscription and you'll get the daily headlines which include that report every time it's released.
#4
05-26-2008, 04:28 AM
I've only found it to be accurate on the broadest level. It's somewhat useful for verifying trends on the macro level, but that's about it. Remember, it's an index of tonnage, therefore gross activity. It doesn't take capacity levels into consideration. The month-over-month reading is much more relevant than the year-over-year. Even in their release, they say that the year-over-year reading is favorable mostly due to an easy comparison last year. What's that mean? It means that last April was so lousy that it didn't take much to be better this year. What it doesn't say is that there were more trucks on the road this April than last. If I remember correctly, the number of trucks peaked in August.
Do I find it useful? Yes, in terms of helping me refine my macro view of what's happening. But, I don't find it terribly useful at the micro level, i.e., operationally. If you're trying to understand the industry, it's one piece of the puzzle. The best thing about it is that it comes out every month. It's hard to find regular data in this biz.
#5
05-26-2008, 10:27 AM
Originally Posted by no_worries
I've only found it to be accurate on the broadest level. It's somewhat useful for verifying trends on the macro level, but that's about it. Remember, it's an index of tonnage, therefore gross activity. It doesn't take capacity levels into consideration. The month-over-month reading is much more relevant than the year-over-year. Even in their release, they say that the year-over-year reading is favorable mostly due to an easy comparison last year. What's that mean? It means that last April was so lousy that it didn't take much to be better this year. What it doesn't say is that there were more trucks on the road this April than last. If I remember correctly, the number of trucks peaked in August.
Do I find it useful? Yes, in terms of helping me refine my macro view of what's happening. But, I don't find it terribly useful at the micro level, i.e., operationally. If you're trying to understand the industry, it's one piece of the puzzle. The best thing about it is that it comes out every month. It's hard to find regular data in this biz. A capacity index would be good too, wouldn't it? I never thought about capacity changing that much. I know it sounds bad, but current fuel prices and conditions may do something to...drive down capacity.
#6
05-26-2008, 02:28 PM
Capacity is declining. Bankruptcies and closures in the first quarter hit carriers with fleets totaling approximately 40,000 trucks. The latest estimate I saw is that, between shutdowns and fleet size reductions, there will be approximately 80,000 fewer trucks on the road at the end of this summer than last (which was the peak). I can't remember exactly, but it seems that number represents about 2% of the total.
Yes, it would be handy to have somebody tracking the number of trucks on the road. ATA does so based on member data, but that info's held close to the vest. They occasionally put out industry reports but it ain't cheap...several hundred to over a thousand dollars. Usually once a year or so, there's a group that does a survey of class 8 registrations. Again, these numbers are most useful from a macro approach. Knowing the number of class 8 trucks registered won't tell you how many of those are sleeper trucks (a huge percentage aren't), or how they break down by mode (tanker, flat, etc.). But it's one more piece of the puzzle. The regular numbers that come out that are most useful in evaluating the overall freight market are the ATA's index, the DOT freight index, the rail and intermodal index, and the quarterly reports from the truckers. Also, the quarterlies from the truck stop operators are particularly illuminating these days. In the first quarter, the volume of fuel sold by TA was down significantly (I think about 10%).
#7
05-26-2008, 03:30 PM
Seems to me as though an entrepeneur could develop a free website citing the sources you've described in this thread, boil the information down into useful summaries/charts, and paint an interesting picture of historical freight patterns as well as future possibilities. Revenue would primarily be in the form of advertising. Any takers?
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#8
05-26-2008, 04:33 PM
Originally Posted by no_worries
The latest estimate I saw is that, between shutdowns and fleet size reductions, there will be approximately 80,000 fewer trucks on the road at the end of this summer than last (which was the peak).
. Seems like we all win on this deal. :lol:
#9
05-26-2008, 06:41 PM
I wouldn't get your hopes up. On the demand side, diesel prices are being driven primarily by demand outside our borders. Everyone thinks oil companies are getting rich selling diesel to us. The fact is, we export a significant volume of diesel. That means oil companies can make more selling it to someone else than they can selling it here.
Interesting idea BigWheels. The problem is, the demographic you'd be pitching to advertisers is truckers...and we all know they're going broke :shock: :lol:
#10
05-27-2008, 12:36 AM
Originally Posted by no_worries
Capacity is declining. Bankruptcies and closures in the first quarter hit carriers with fleets totaling approximately 40,000 trucks. The latest estimate I saw is that, between shutdowns and fleet size reductions, there will be approximately 80,000 fewer trucks on the road at the end of this summer than last (which was the peak). I can't remember exactly, but it seems that number represents about 2% of the total.
Yes, it would be handy to have somebody tracking the number of trucks on the road. ATA does so based on member data, but that info's held close to the vest. They occasionally put out industry reports but it ain't cheap...several hundred to over a thousand dollars. Usually once a year or so, there's a group that does a survey of class 8 registrations. Again, these numbers are most useful from a macro approach. Knowing the number of class 8 trucks registered won't tell you how many of those are sleeper trucks (a huge percentage aren't), or how they break down by mode (tanker, flat, etc.). But it's one more piece of the puzzle. The regular numbers that come out that are most useful in evaluating the overall freight market are the ATA's index, the DOT freight index, the rail and intermodal index, and the quarterly reports from the truckers. Also, the quarterlies from the truck stop operators are particularly illuminating these days. In the first quarter, the volume of fuel sold by TA was down significantly (I think about 10%).  Sorry for the O/O who runs himself out of business, but I wonder how much upward price pressure that puts on the rates? I'm sure it's not enough to offset the downward price pressure due to a slowing economy and the huge part of the rate necessary just to offset fuel. It's all very interesting. It seems like some guys can do just fine if they can weather the storm but for the guys who are overextended and have to make a lot to keep their trucks and to maintain their family's lifestyle, it could smart pretty good. |
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