So, Merrick4, if you knew then what you know now, are you saying you would have done things differently?

I am seriously considering buying 2-3 trucks and putting them out on lease, but your current sentiment along with other negative comments are giving me pause. It sounds like you want out and are sick of the trucking business.

 

Driver turnover is actually down according to figures that I read not too long ago. Only a few years ago the national average was around 136%. According to that article the turnover is now about 76%. It is still high, but about half from previous numbers. Not everyone wants to deal with all the hassle's of owning trucks and dealing with drivers. It can be challenging.

 

Any idea why the turnover is less now? It seems like truck drivers are in demand everywhere in our country.

 

The economy is still sluggish. That may have as much to do with it as anything else. Most people are still concerned about the future and the economy so they may not be moving around as much.

 

76% is still high as hell. Maybe not for OTR trucking. But any other field besides fast food im sure 76% is high

 

76% is an old number. The turnover rate has been above 90% for awhile and I expect that it will have exceeded 100% in the third quarter. The past few months have seen some significant pay increases instituted by large carriers which is only going to accelerate the churn rate among drivers. The economy is not sluggish, especially as it relates to freight. Demand has outstripped capacity for a couple of years now and hasn't shown any signs of slowing, as of yet. However, the rest of the world is stagnating and commodity markets are slowing, which will slow our exports. The combination of excellent pricing power for carriers and low diesel prices is leading to fleet expansion, which will eventually bring the capacity equation back toward equilibrium. The only limiting factor on fleets desire to grow (and the thing that will save us from ourselves) is driver scarcity. In any case, it's a driver's market right now and turnover will continue to rise.

 

The economy is still sluggish. I have no doubt there is some churn. When turnover rates are published it can be a little deceptive. Turnover doesn't necessarily mean that drivers are leaving the industry, although that will always happen to some degree. Mostly, the turnover is drivers moving from one carrier to another. It is a little different with most other industries. Fast food had a 300% turnover rate at one time. I agree about the reason for some of the turnover, driver pay. Carriers have always been fierce competing for drivers. There isn't the shortage of drivers than some would have us believe. According to figures that I have seen there is a current shortage of about 20,000 drivers. That sounds like a lot, but it amounts to less than 1% of the total drivers in this country. That isn't a shortage. Rates have been up longer this year than usual. Some rates are down somewhat, depending on location and lane. I hope rates extend into the winter, but there is normally a seasonal slowdown. Perception is everything. Election years are usually a little different than non election years. It has been more difficult to predict trends since 2008. I don't consider things normal, but they are better than we have seen for a while. There is still much uncertainty in the marketplace.

 

Maybe things are different in whatever niche you happen to inhabit, but we are now four years into a freight recovery. Activity and volume have exceeded pre-recession levels with less capacity. That's what makes for a boom market which is what we've been in for at least a year. That just happens to be about how long carriers have had solid pricing power. I operate in the lowly refrigerated market but I keep my eye on the other segments and the platform segment has been by far the strongest. I suppose there are regional pockets that may not be as strong as others but overall relative strength has been the norm. Uncertainty may exist in the greater economy due to a muddy tax picture and questionable global growth, but the domestic economy is humming and the freight industry is full speed ahead. If you're not taking advantage already then you're a day late and a dollar short. We feel the downturn before it shows up anywhere else, so if you're looking for general economic indicators to tell you when things are slowing down, you're already behind the eight ball. Rates are strong and fuel is cheap and O/O's and small fleets operating on the spot market are in the best position to capitalize, but the ride never lasts.

 

I don't think reefers are as sensitive to economic changes as most other areas of the industry. There are loads to haul in most areas. There are quite a few loads from my home base and that is encouraging. Some rates are good. I don't think the economy is in the tank, but there is certainly room for improvement. I do open deck freight and we tend to see slow downs and recoveries before other segments of this business.

 

A few thing differently, but don't let my negativity stop you. We all have different personalities. This is a profitable good business I just don't like it. You see No Worries handle, well mine would be All Worries. Also (although No Worries might disagree ) I am not a very sociable person. I don't like talking to people much and very solitary. That's hard to do if you have over 50 employees. And I despise being responsible for other people's foolishness. But everyone around me tells me I'm sitting on a goldmine. Again this just isn't the path I want to take in life. But aggravation and all, it pays me good and allows me to enjoy my daughter grow up. I'm always the father that's there because I can.