I wanted to get everyones take on what your seeing out there work load wise.
I've been listening to CNBC a lot lately and some of the truck stocks are rising, Yellow, JB Hunt, and some one else, (I don't remember who), but these guys seem to like the trucks here lately, and they think that things are starting to pick up. I think it was on Fast Money they said that we're about thirteen months into the freight slowdown and we should start to pull out of it. I guess there looking at the average slow period being thirteen months. What are your thoughts on this and again what are you seeing out there now?

Construction has come to a grinding halt here lately, both residential and commercial, which is about the pattern. Usually when residential slows, commercial is about a year to 18 months behind, and it's here.

What I like to do every now and then is ask my suppliers what they're seeing because they have a much broader view than I do. I don't know if any of you do something similar in your business or not. If you do maybe you could expand on this a little also.

 

I expect the economy to be off much of this year. It should pick up somewhat in about a month, but I don't think it will be as strong as it was a couple of years ago. This slow down has been coming for some time. Investors typically get into markets before an expected up turn. Trucking usually slows during winter months and picks up again in spring. That is a normal business cycle for trucking. Some segments are not as affected as much as others. In any case, rates are not what they should be right now. Those who keep costs down and maintain fairly decent rates will survive, but I expect to see more going out of the business. Large companies merge to avoid bankruptcy. Small companies just go out of business.

 

I agree, I think it will be slow for the first half of the year, but with these rate cuts and another one possibly coming it might help later in the year. I don't think housing will rebound any time soon and that will have an impact on trucking, especially the open deck trailers. However, have you noticed lately that there is a lot of talk of infrastructure? Might be a buzz word because it's an election year but I'm hearing it a lot lately. That could bode well for trucks in the future I suppose, if there is an infrastructure boom (for lack of a better word).

 

What they want to do is raise fuel taxes, putting in toll roads and raising existing tolls to fund those projects. Elected officials have blown highway funds on pet projects and are trying to raise taxes in order to hide their mismanagement of public funds. They are doing anything they can to raise taxes in a number of ways. This will impact trucking more than the commuters. I just renewed my truck insurance and was hit with a major hike in rates, even though I haven't had any accidents or cargo claims. It seems that with all the failures of smaller carriers insurance companies are raising rates to compensate for the shortfall. According to my insurance company all of them are going up on their rates this year. I shopped around and even with the price hike, my current company was still cheaper than anyone else. With a sluggish economy this is not a good thing for trucking.

With public projects, they can project a false sense of doing well for the economy. All this does is hide or shelter what is really going on in the economy. These projects could help trucking in the short term, but could hurt us with higher taxes in the long run. Government doesn't seem to understand that higher taxes don't help the economy. Lower taxes and less government intervention will do more to stimulate the economy than anything.

All of the price increases will only hinder an already struggling trucking industry and economy. Those who can't control their costs and continue to haul cheap freight will not be able to survive. I don't want to be the voice of doom and gloom. This is just another challenge. We will survive this rough spot.

 

Your doom and gloom has totally ruined my Saturday GMAN. I'm going back to bed. :lol:

 

I am sorry to have ruined your day, Rosty. I don't think that things are all bad. I just think that we need to operate more efficiently. I expect to do well this year and have an increase in business. In fact, I plan to buy at least one more truck, possibly two this year. I think that there will be opportunities for those who plan and manage their businesses well. How is that for being more optimistic? :lol:

 

That's better, holy cow I was getting ready to drown myself in the pool but as luck would have it, the cover is still on, so tragedy was avoided. shewwww!

 

At what point (fleet size) do trucking companies self-insure?

Have you heard of 'Captive Insurance' companies?

Good Luck Ladies & Gents!

 

I am glad you were prevented from doing anything rash, Rosty.